Oh Henry! - A Chinese Box

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There's been a bit of unexpected and positive news coming from the Korean peninsula recently, as the South has agreed in principle to meet with the North on talks to help bring down the overall level of animosity and aggression in the region.

There is a cynical undercurrent among the diplomats who believe that these talks will likely just be a sham. After all, North Korea is known for it's outlandish outbursts, not it's calm reason. But, as I assured the president before my Paris peace talks with the North Vietnamese, the simple act of bringing these people to this point is a major accomplishment, and a cause for optimism.

Of course, before engaging in the summit the South Koreans should be prepared for a fact I had to learn the hard way: they will get absolutely nothing tangible from the North. No concessions, no agreements involving weapons or military actions, no admission of responsibility for any past deeds, and no guarantees of a continued truce. The North Koreans, like the North Vietnamese, are an adversary who will evade, deny, deflect, and confuse, and who often completely contradict their own statements and positions within the same sentence. The North will use the talks as a publicity stunt, seeking to portray themselves as reasonable and open minded to the global community, instead of as the collection of madmen and barbarians they truly are.

The one advantage the South Koreans have over me is that, being Asian themselves, they are already naturally inclined to understand the deceit and duplicity that lies within the Oriental heart.  That realization came as some surprise to me, as I had not imagined any race to be so devious.  What was I, a mind reader to know such a thing?

The bigger question is obviously, why would the North agree to such talks now? Why, after a year of unparalleled belligerence and saber rattling, would the North suddenly want to appear compliant? The obvious answer is they are hoping to once again dupe the United States and our allies into providing much-needed aid in terms of food and money. They've certainly used this tactic before with past presidents to great success.  It seemed that whenever the North needed assistance, they would become an unbearable annoyance, and then would extort the West before calming down.

But that's too pat an answer, and doesn't give any credit to the deeply inscrutable nature of these dybbuks.  As I learned long ago, when an Asian comes to you with a gift, it's usually accompanied with a very large bill.

No, the real reason for this sudden olive branch by North Korea is because South Korea (and by extension, the US) is getting assistance from an unexpected source: China.

During the Paris peace talks, I was working like a schlemiel behind the scenes trying to get either the Soviet Union or China to assist us by convincing the Viet Cong to be honest and sincere in negotiations. We poked, threatened, and begged the Russians and Chinese for help, because we knew that without it the Vietnamese would have no incentive to engage in genuine talks. So long as the Soviets and Chinese were encouraging them, they could behave as they wished.  Despite my best efforts, I too often found myself exasperated.  During sensitive negotiations Le Duc Tho would just sit there, kibbitzing about the soup, instead of addressing the peace process. I should be there with nothing better to do?  Never mind that we were acting in good faith and only wanted a sensible resolution to the conflict.  Lack of any pressure from the Soviets or Chinese meant the Vietnamese could, and did, squander time and energy like little pishers.

Today, of course, China is much different than it was during Mao's time. Who knew that suddenly making a bit of money isn't so bad anymore? Chinese communism, while still oppressive and corrupt, is much more welcoming of the income it can generate through partnerships with Western business. And so, there is little coincidence that North Korea's sudden burst of diplomatic friendship happens to come at the same time as Chinese President Hu Jintao's summit with President Obama, and meetings with American industrial moguls.

The Chinese are nothing if not pragmatic.  It's clear that they understand that despite their commitment to propping up the meshuggah Kim Jong Il, their future lies with General Motors and Boeing. And so, at some point, the Chinese must have realized that it would be to their great benefit to maybe yank on the chain around the North Korean neck and tell them to heel.

Of course, given that it is the Chinese who are behind this sudden North Korean amity, it's safe to assume the worst. Better to not be caught with our trousers down. The Chinese may have told the North Koreans to play nice for now, but there is little point in believing they have told them to do anything more than that, or for any longer than needed.

Orientals are very shrewd negotiators, and one must be able to peer behind the porcelain mask of friendship in order to determine their true nature of enmity. China's influence in bringing the North Koreans should not be misconstrued.  This is a temporary tactic, designed for China's benefit so they can strike a favorable bargain with the US.  And, the carrot for the North Koreans is likely the promise of increased Chinese aid once they reap the harvest of these seeds.

As fellow Asians, I am sure the South Koreans understand this.  And, as Asians, I am sure they have something up their sleeves as well.

Zie Gezunt!

False START

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My fellow Americans,

The end of the year is traditionally a time for people to reflect on what has happened and turn toward what is coming. Unless, of course, you're the president with an agenda facing the last few days of a lame-duck congress. In that case, the end of the year is a time of pressure and anxiety as you scramble to salvage as many of your initiatives as possible before the new (and hostile) group comes in and sabotages your every move.

The matter of Obama's Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with Russia is a perfect example. President Obama has asked the congress to ratify START before congress adjourns for the end of the year. The republicans, wearing their pants high after successful mid-term elections and gaining the extension of the Bush tax cuts, are resistant and looking to again flex their muscles. The rationale of the republican senators who wish to delay the vote on the treaty is that they want to take reasonable time to debate it and ensure that it allows for sufficient protections for the United States is hard to refute.

However, as others have pointed out, what happens in the senate, particularly as it concerns matters of the president, is usually not based on logic, nor because of a Left-Right philosophical incongruity. Instead, too often, it becomes little more than a pissing contest between the legislative and executive branches, where the senate obfuscates a president's agenda simply because they can. Sadly, congress wants to feel important and relevant, and to do so they often resort to taking a position contrary to that of the president simply because it focuses attention on them. What they really need to do is understand that if the president does something of this level, the job of congress is simply to approve it and nothing more. Congress should focus on domestic issues and not meddle in international affairs.  Foreign policy should be the sole territory of the president. Congress has neither the capacity nor opposable thumbs required for that sort of delicate work.

So, while the president is pressing for swift ratification, the senate, led by Sens McConnel (R-KY) and Kyl (R-AZ) is intentionally playing a low-tempo game.  Now, far be it for me to question the integrity of my fellow republicans, but there are some who have wondered whether their intransigence is actually justified. And while I am more than willing to give the benefit of the doubt to members of my party, I have more than enough first-hand experience with senators to know that they can often act on selfish reasons ahead of what's good for the country.

Back in 1972, I found myself in a similar situation. I, along with Kissinger, had been working with Leonid Brezhnev, Aleksander Dobrynin, and the Soviets since 1969 on the Strategic Arms Limitations Talks (SALT). And anyone who has had to face the Soviets knows that this was a very delicate matter. After three years of endless summits in desolate locales negotiating megatonnage, deployment vectors, MIRVs and MRVs, ICBMs, and methods of verification, we finally had an agreement. To say it was a noteworthy accomplishment is more than a gross understatement.

SALT should have been cause for massive celebrations along the level of VE and VJ day. I should have been met with a ticker-tape parade in Times Square, fireworks, and been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Instead, as Henry said, the republicans in the senate treated me like a schlub (its one of those funny sounding Hebrew words he would often use).  They questioned my patriotism and reacted to the treaty with knee-jerk opposition and skepticism. Some even wondered aloud whether I'd capitulated to the communists and ensured the destruction of our nation. They demanded an open debate to dissect the treaty and then had the temerity to suggest changes according to their whims. It made no difference to them that between me and Henry we had the two sharpest international political minds involved. Oh no! Those ingrates felt as if somehow they had the right to meddle, even though they had about as much understanding of the intricacies of the agreement as a hillbilly has of personal hygiene.

Their interference almost sent Henry over the edge, but I understood the congressional mind (having served as both representative and senator).  All those small people wanted was their moment in the spotlight. Maybe a few pictures in their local papers for the rubes. Ultimately, they voted to ratify the treaty. But not without first butting in to the process like an unwanted alcoholic half-brother at Thanksgiving dinner.

It's not surprising that things haven't changed all that much, although in today's climate it seems that the vocal opposition of Senators McConnel and Kyl are more about being against something Obama is for.  Still, it boils down to those to just being the sort of pushy dunderheads who crave the attention and validation of their existence. People like them ought to realize that their constant intrusion does nothing but needlessly complicate things. But their inflated sense of self-importance prevents that.

 
 
Nixon is: Frustrated

Taking a Leak

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My fellow Americans,

A lot has been made over the release of classified, sensitive, and secret diplomatic information by the WikiLeaks website, with considerable attention given to some of the characterizations of foreign leaders.

News outlets pounced on such purile and lurid passages as calling Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi "feckless, vain and ineffective as a leader", and with a penchant for throwing "wild parties." Or those painting French President Nicolas Sarkozy as having a "thin-skinned and authoritarian personal style" with a bit of an inferiority complex. Now, many Americans probably agree with this and don't understand the uproar over this leak. After all, none of this is actually top-secret information. We all know that Berlusconi is a drooling old whoremonger and that Sarkozy is a petulant hobbit.

The naive among us would look upon something like this as simply transparency, and the right of the people to be informed about what their government is doing. But that's not true. Much like the process of making sausage, there are things in government and diplomacy that the people are better off not knowing. And your average orthogonian doesn't really want to know what happens behind the scenes. He's happy just knowing that the government is taking action to keep him secure, healthy, and free. The less he knows about the specifics, the better.

But that isn't the point. The content is incidental to the act. It doesn't matter that most of these comminications are mundane reports about unimportant incidents in insignificant countries. What is pertinent is that the publication of these documents is a serious and major breach in the integrity of our protected communications and a blow to our national security.

So these leaks, while cloaked in the guise of transparency, are really just the attempt of Franklins looking to take a potshot at the power structure. I know, because I had a similar experience. In June, 1971 the leading voice of the subversives and agitators, the New York Times, started publishing excerpts from the classified "Pentagon Papers" which detailed the top-secret American strategy, analysis, plans, and intentions for political and military operations in Vietnam. It didn't matter that this information was compiled during my predecessor's administration. The important thing was that this was secret government communications and it was now in the hands of the liberal press. It was a leak, and that level of aggression simply can not be allowed to stand unanswered. As president, it was my duty to respond.

Now, while you might not be able to put the genie back in the bottle, you can break the hands of the dirty rat who opened the lid and let it out. Retaliation, disproportionate in it's intensity, is whats needed. And that's just what I did back in '71. Once we smoked out that snake Ellsberg it was all about payback. And that's what needs to happen now. This Asange is thumbing his nose at the sanctity of government and the privilege of politicians and diplomats to perform without fear of public scrutiny.

When I faced this matter I chose Liddy for the job. He was a nasty and vicious bastard, and wanted nothing more than the chance to go Cambodian on some pointy-headed East Coast liberal like Ellsberg. I wanted the sweet revenge of destroying his reputation, livelihood, and personal life, while I think Liddy had something a bit more immediately physical in mind. In any case, a slipup during the infiltration of Ellberg's psychiatrist's office quashed the plans.

But at least I had the minerals to take action.

Now it's Obama's turn. He needs to find some psychotic beast willing to risk everything to get to this character and run a spike up his ass. At this point it's about principle. And that is more precious than any memo describing the Iranians as selfish, uncooperative misanthropes.

Nixon is: Vengeful
 

Oh, Henry! Iranian Headache

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There has been quite a lot of commotion about the recent agreement by the government of the Republic of Iran to ship 1200 kilograms of low-enriched Uranium to Turkey, bringing it into compliance with the Atomic Energy Agency’s October agreement negotiated by the U.S., Russia, France and Iran.

The delay compliance by the Iranians is not accidental. Waiting these six months has ensured that they can ship the specified amount of uranium and still have enough in stock from which to construct an atomic device.  Further, they are retaining the right to continue to enrich uranium for future use.

This is not surprising at all. Let me tell you, as someone who has experience dealing with the Arabic mind, that they are among the most treacherous maniacs on earth.  Every word they say has at least three meanings, and a few hidden ones. They are filled with malice and will never turn their backs on an opportunity to make a deal to their advantage.

The problem with dealing with Arabs is that they are a race of cheats, con artists, and scoundrels. Fraud and swindling are as much a genetic trait in them as is their oily nature and unsettling smiles. Not only that, they use the fact that they are innately repulsive to everyone to help them gain the upper hand.  So although they are finally acquiescing to the letter of the original agreement, they are doing so in a way they know the west cannot accept, thus allowing them to appear the victimized party – brutally oppressed by the never-satisfied western powers.

In the absence of a military reprisal, the only tool available to the international coalition is economic.  And applied successfully, sanctions could be quite effective against the Iranians. They are people that do not do well with privation. They are spoiled, greedy, materialistic, and addicted to the gaudy trappings of status. Take away their ability to buy Gucci sunglasses or French colognes and suddenly you’ll find them quite conciliatory. But that won’t happen as long as the Russians and Chinese keep the tap open to designer handbags and Italian loafers.

But the real work here will be with the Brazilians and Turks, who actually brokered this deal. These opportunistic lampreys must believe that this is their chance to make their bones on the international scene. The advantages for both are clear: Turkey will improve it’s standing in Europe and help it secure admission into the EU, while Brazil seeks to emerge as the power in South America.

So rather than waste time speaking with the Iranians, what the US, British, and French need to do is have more private negotiations with the Russians, Chinese, Turks and Brazilians. They still have some sway with Iran. For every one contact with Iran there must be five behind the scenes contacts with them. It’s vital to convince them it’s in their interest to not trade with the Iranians. One hand washes the other.

And the time is right.  These people will be completely preoccupied with the World Cup in June and July, and the last thing they'll want to do is sit for hours on end in sweltering rooms with swarthy, cuminy Iranians when they could be enjoying a game of soccer.  Diplomacy is the art of using the weaknesses of others against them. It's time to press our advantage.

Gehen Gazint!