Oh Henry! - A Chinese Box

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There's been a bit of unexpected and positive news coming from the Korean peninsula recently, as the South has agreed in principle to meet with the North on talks to help bring down the overall level of animosity and aggression in the region.

There is a cynical undercurrent among the diplomats who believe that these talks will likely just be a sham. After all, North Korea is known for it's outlandish outbursts, not it's calm reason. But, as I assured the president before my Paris peace talks with the North Vietnamese, the simple act of bringing these people to this point is a major accomplishment, and a cause for optimism.

Of course, before engaging in the summit the South Koreans should be prepared for a fact I had to learn the hard way: they will get absolutely nothing tangible from the North. No concessions, no agreements involving weapons or military actions, no admission of responsibility for any past deeds, and no guarantees of a continued truce. The North Koreans, like the North Vietnamese, are an adversary who will evade, deny, deflect, and confuse, and who often completely contradict their own statements and positions within the same sentence. The North will use the talks as a publicity stunt, seeking to portray themselves as reasonable and open minded to the global community, instead of as the collection of madmen and barbarians they truly are.

The one advantage the South Koreans have over me is that, being Asian themselves, they are already naturally inclined to understand the deceit and duplicity that lies within the Oriental heart.  That realization came as some surprise to me, as I had not imagined any race to be so devious.  What was I, a mind reader to know such a thing?

The bigger question is obviously, why would the North agree to such talks now? Why, after a year of unparalleled belligerence and saber rattling, would the North suddenly want to appear compliant? The obvious answer is they are hoping to once again dupe the United States and our allies into providing much-needed aid in terms of food and money. They've certainly used this tactic before with past presidents to great success.  It seemed that whenever the North needed assistance, they would become an unbearable annoyance, and then would extort the West before calming down.

But that's too pat an answer, and doesn't give any credit to the deeply inscrutable nature of these dybbuks.  As I learned long ago, when an Asian comes to you with a gift, it's usually accompanied with a very large bill.

No, the real reason for this sudden olive branch by North Korea is because South Korea (and by extension, the US) is getting assistance from an unexpected source: China.

During the Paris peace talks, I was working like a schlemiel behind the scenes trying to get either the Soviet Union or China to assist us by convincing the Viet Cong to be honest and sincere in negotiations. We poked, threatened, and begged the Russians and Chinese for help, because we knew that without it the Vietnamese would have no incentive to engage in genuine talks. So long as the Soviets and Chinese were encouraging them, they could behave as they wished.  Despite my best efforts, I too often found myself exasperated.  During sensitive negotiations Le Duc Tho would just sit there, kibbitzing about the soup, instead of addressing the peace process. I should be there with nothing better to do?  Never mind that we were acting in good faith and only wanted a sensible resolution to the conflict.  Lack of any pressure from the Soviets or Chinese meant the Vietnamese could, and did, squander time and energy like little pishers.

Today, of course, China is much different than it was during Mao's time. Who knew that suddenly making a bit of money isn't so bad anymore? Chinese communism, while still oppressive and corrupt, is much more welcoming of the income it can generate through partnerships with Western business. And so, there is little coincidence that North Korea's sudden burst of diplomatic friendship happens to come at the same time as Chinese President Hu Jintao's summit with President Obama, and meetings with American industrial moguls.

The Chinese are nothing if not pragmatic.  It's clear that they understand that despite their commitment to propping up the meshuggah Kim Jong Il, their future lies with General Motors and Boeing. And so, at some point, the Chinese must have realized that it would be to their great benefit to maybe yank on the chain around the North Korean neck and tell them to heel.

Of course, given that it is the Chinese who are behind this sudden North Korean amity, it's safe to assume the worst. Better to not be caught with our trousers down. The Chinese may have told the North Koreans to play nice for now, but there is little point in believing they have told them to do anything more than that, or for any longer than needed.

Orientals are very shrewd negotiators, and one must be able to peer behind the porcelain mask of friendship in order to determine their true nature of enmity. China's influence in bringing the North Koreans should not be misconstrued.  This is a temporary tactic, designed for China's benefit so they can strike a favorable bargain with the US.  And, the carrot for the North Koreans is likely the promise of increased Chinese aid once they reap the harvest of these seeds.

As fellow Asians, I am sure the South Koreans understand this.  And, as Asians, I am sure they have something up their sleeves as well.

Zie Gezunt!

Oh, Henry! Iranian Headache

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There has been quite a lot of commotion about the recent agreement by the government of the Republic of Iran to ship 1200 kilograms of low-enriched Uranium to Turkey, bringing it into compliance with the Atomic Energy Agency’s October agreement negotiated by the U.S., Russia, France and Iran.

The delay compliance by the Iranians is not accidental. Waiting these six months has ensured that they can ship the specified amount of uranium and still have enough in stock from which to construct an atomic device.  Further, they are retaining the right to continue to enrich uranium for future use.

This is not surprising at all. Let me tell you, as someone who has experience dealing with the Arabic mind, that they are among the most treacherous maniacs on earth.  Every word they say has at least three meanings, and a few hidden ones. They are filled with malice and will never turn their backs on an opportunity to make a deal to their advantage.

The problem with dealing with Arabs is that they are a race of cheats, con artists, and scoundrels. Fraud and swindling are as much a genetic trait in them as is their oily nature and unsettling smiles. Not only that, they use the fact that they are innately repulsive to everyone to help them gain the upper hand.  So although they are finally acquiescing to the letter of the original agreement, they are doing so in a way they know the west cannot accept, thus allowing them to appear the victimized party – brutally oppressed by the never-satisfied western powers.

In the absence of a military reprisal, the only tool available to the international coalition is economic.  And applied successfully, sanctions could be quite effective against the Iranians. They are people that do not do well with privation. They are spoiled, greedy, materialistic, and addicted to the gaudy trappings of status. Take away their ability to buy Gucci sunglasses or French colognes and suddenly you’ll find them quite conciliatory. But that won’t happen as long as the Russians and Chinese keep the tap open to designer handbags and Italian loafers.

But the real work here will be with the Brazilians and Turks, who actually brokered this deal. These opportunistic lampreys must believe that this is their chance to make their bones on the international scene. The advantages for both are clear: Turkey will improve it’s standing in Europe and help it secure admission into the EU, while Brazil seeks to emerge as the power in South America.

So rather than waste time speaking with the Iranians, what the US, British, and French need to do is have more private negotiations with the Russians, Chinese, Turks and Brazilians. They still have some sway with Iran. For every one contact with Iran there must be five behind the scenes contacts with them. It’s vital to convince them it’s in their interest to not trade with the Iranians. One hand washes the other.

And the time is right.  These people will be completely preoccupied with the World Cup in June and July, and the last thing they'll want to do is sit for hours on end in sweltering rooms with swarthy, cuminy Iranians when they could be enjoying a game of soccer.  Diplomacy is the art of using the weaknesses of others against them. It's time to press our advantage.

Gehen Gazint!

The Haig is Dead, Long Live the Haig

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My fellow Americans,

It is with a heavy heart and a flare-up of my shingles that I announce that General Alexander Haig, my ex Chief of Staff, has died.

Haig, or "Strafing Run Al" as I called him, was always someone to whom I could turn when the liberal press, college peaceniks, or intellectual crybabies would start to annoy me - which was pretty damned often.  Unlike some other members of my staff, Al understood the need for aggression and a show of strength at a cellular level.  This was not a man who would doubt the wisdom of ordering a squad of B52s to bomb the Ho Chi Minh trail. Far from it; his eyes would light up with glee and his boundless joy would be more than he could contain. When the order for an attack was given his only two questions would be when does it start, and how many runs would be enough to blow those deceitful yellow commies back to the negotiating table.

Al's most important role, though, was to be my eyes and ears in terms of Henry.  Kissinger was a vital asset to be sure, but he was also deceitful and cunning - ready to upstage the president at any moment, and thus was someone who required a very short leash.  And Al was exactly the sort of man I needed yanking that leash whenever Henry would start to bark a bit too loud.  Al was blindly loyal, never questioned an order, willing to do whatever it took to ensure that the president maintain order and discipline in the land, and eager to unleash violence on all enemies foreign and domestic without a second thought.  He was a brutal sociopath, but he was my brutal sociopath.

I have many fond memories of Al, but the one that always brings a smile to my face is one meeting with me, Al, and Henry, during which we were discussing what to do about the over reaction by the press to a few hippies getting shot at Kent State University.  Al was resolute, and wanted to issue a terse statement to the press amounting to "They played with fire and got burned." Henry, on the other hand, wanted to be more conciliatory toward the left, believing it could win us points.  Al began to bubble over with anger over what he viewed as appeasement, when he suddenly turned to Henry, reached under his coat, pulled out his pistol, pointed it at Henry's forehead, cocked the hammer, and said in an almost inaudible voice, "Goddamit, Kissinger, if you think we should kiss the ass of those liberal traitors I will splatter your egg-headed, Jew brains all over the Oval Office."  I decided enough was enough, told Al that we should be adult about it, and say something non-committal about the whole thing, and let it rest. Al slowly returned his weapon to the holster, whispered that Henry was very lucky, then let out a fart.  We all laughed.

Good times.

 Nixon is: Doleful